Friday, January 30, 2009

The Intrade World Crisis Index

The Intrade World Crisis Index will tell us whether the Davos World Economic Forum Matters!

As business and political leagers gather at the five-day Davos meeting we will measure whether many of those who presided over blunders in business and policy can credibly lead us in 'Shaping the Post-Crisis World' - the theme for the meeting.

To measure the immediate impact of dozens of presentations and workshops by 2,500 business and 42 political leaders we have constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index.

Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced at 50.0 at the official opening of the meeting is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions.

A higher post meeting index means our markets predict a more disastrous 2009 than before. A lower post-meeting index means our markets predict global leaders have reduced the probability that 2009 will be the disaster we previously thought.

You can see the updated Intrade World Crisis Index HERE.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Deposits Guaranteed

Intrade Member Deposits Guaranteed by Governments Guarantee Scheme:

On or about the 30 September 2008 the Irish Government put in place a guarantee arrangement to safeguard all deposits at major Irish banks including Anglo Irish Bank.

The guarantee is for 2 years.

More information on the guarantee is available here:

In addition, National Irish Bank's parent, Danske, is covered by a Danish Government Guarantee Scheme.

Therefore all member deposits are now guaranteed by the Irish and Danish governments.

Member Funds Segregated: All member funds are held in specific and designated member segregated accounts with National Irish Bank (a subsidiary of Danske Bank), and Anglo Irish Bank. These accounts are separate and distinct from Company funds.

Individual Member Segregated Bank Accounts: To provide additional transparency any member can request a specific account be established in their own name within the suite of segregated member funds accounts. The Company incurs a cost to provide this service and passes on the cost only to members availing of this service.

This service enables you to receive on an individual Bank Statement in from a bank guaranteed by the Irish or Danish governments your balance.

More information on Irish Public Finances is available here:

But what about Ireland itself?
Well Ireland's 'AAA' credit rating was affirmed on Jan 20th 2009 and said the outlook for Ireland's ratings was 'stable' while Standard & Poor's said it was reviewing the triple-A rating on Ireland, and Moody's has also indicated it is considering the triple-A sovereign rating. Ireland's GDP grew by 6pc in 2007, but contracted by over 1pc in 2008, and a further circa 5pc decline this year is likely.

Any questions / comments feel free to post below or email me on