Monday, July 27, 2009
Friday, July 17, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
With so many businesses failing and risk being a pariah of biblical proportions what are some of the future implications and what can we do about it now?
Here is an example.
Say the business you started was to fail. You may feel that you would have been better off if you had stayed in an 8-till-5.30 job and took your 15 days holidays per year instead of giving every hour of every week to your own business.
There is a lot of risk aversion right now. People are saving. Taking too much risk is the stated cause of the mess we are in. But if we somehow criminalize the concept of risk taking where is the innovation and entrepreneurial spirit going to come from in the future?
Related Story from Washington Times "EDITORIAL: In defense of speculators"
Related Market - wouldnt it be good to have this type of information on your company.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
The notification would be short like the example below but would inform those interested of activity on Intrade.
Before we develop this I would appreciate you’re your input as to whether you would value this information / transparency.
The body of the text would be…
Prediction market 2012.REP.NOM.PALIN just traded at 10.5% ($1.05 out of $10) on Intrade. Previous trade was 10.5%. http://tiny.cc/FS9lN
Monday, July 6, 2009
Do you agree with him? Whether you do or don’t consider please…
June unemployment: Another half million added to the 14.5 million unemployed bringing the rate to 9.5%. This is expected to increase. There is a 70% chance that unemployment will be above 10.25% at year end. As a CEO of a company, we will be reluctant to resume hiring until growth commences.
Consumer Spending Reducing: Credit card companies are curbing consumer spending further as they are being stung by increased defaults and delinquencies. But consumers are adding to this be saving hard for the rainy day as evidenced by the recent saving statistics. With less people employed, spending will reduce further.
Individual States in Crisis: E.g. California defaulting on short term obligations. They can’t run current budget deficits. With taxes falling they are forced to cut spending (something the Irish government seem unbelievable slow to do) which will reduce consumer spending now and the foundation for growth in future as education spending is being cut.
Foreclosures Increasing: The rising number of foreclosed and abandoned homes and commercial property. There are about 2 million foreclosed or abandoned homes now.
So the crisis is over? Alas this seems wishful thinking to me at least.