tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post8131602024732938985..comments2023-05-03T01:35:38.778-07:00Comments on John Delaney: Crisis = OpportunityIntradehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-19446619871175473262008-11-03T20:13:00.001-08:002008-11-03T20:13:00.001-08:00Damon said : If the "white guy" was ...<b>Damon</b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> If the "white guy" was George W. Bush, I CERTAINLY WILL blame you!Intradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-91522310142769296782008-11-03T07:02:00.001-08:002008-11-03T07:02:00.001-08:00Fearful Taxes said : Don't blame me, I vot...<b>Fearful Taxes</b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> Don't blame me, I voted for the white guy.Intradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-40322817834742349512008-11-01T11:36:00.001-07:002008-11-01T11:36:00.001-07:00Nancy Brumback said : re: transparency, for we...<b>Nancy Brumback</b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> re: transparency, for we who use intrade to check the perceived probability of events, it would help very much if we knew the size of the betting pool... thanksIntradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-32809650723031752862008-10-31T01:07:00.001-07:002008-10-31T01:07:00.001-07:00Steve said : Intrade is a fascinating and exce...<b>Steve</b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> Intrade is a fascinating and exceedingly useful resource. It would be even better if you could replace Kudlow's tiresome, ill-considered commentary with someone with more incisive thinking.Intradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-11021006674037026792008-10-28T23:28:00.000-07:002008-10-28T23:28:00.000-07:00Hi Damon, You suggest that “with Intrade markets i...Hi Damon, <BR/><BR/>You suggest that “with Intrade markets is that it requires one to cover 100% of the max loss for each contract while neglecting to mention that many contracts are negatively correlated.”<BR/><BR/>This is actually not the case for most long term markets with a significant time to maturity but is the case for many short term markets. Let me know if you want us to email examples to you. <BR/><BR/>With many long-term markets within a group the contracts are linked when they are mutually dependent on one another e.g. there can only be one winner of an event. <BR/><BR/>Example: <BR/><BR/>Global temperature in 2009 compared to 2008<BR/>Is higher <BR/>Is lower <BR/>Is the same <BR/><BR/>Only one of these outcomes will occur. Therefore the Exchange links the 3 contracts and freeze funds on the worst possible outcome across all 3 contracts for the positions/orders you have.<BR/><BR/>Hope this helps,<BR/><BR/>JohnIntradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-2991766948091816622008-10-28T22:09:00.001-07:002008-10-28T22:09:00.001-07:00Damon said : Hi John, if you don't mind, p...<b>Damon</b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> Hi John, if you don't mind, perhaps you could go into more detail about the problems of prediction markets.<br /><br />One problem I see with Intrade markets is that it requires one to cover 100% of the max loss for each contract while neglecting to mention that many contracts are negatively correlated.<br /><br />One example of this is is in the presidential markets where one can hit the bid on all the candidates and collect over 100 (an arbitrage) in theory but in practice requires you to cover the max loss for each. Even with the two frontrunners, Obama and McCain, many times one sees that the sum of the bids is over 100. Without a market maker, these markets get out of whack too frequently.<br /><br />The consequence of this is that the contracts tend to overvalue underdogs and undervalue favorites because it's easier to add volume if your cash requirements are less.Intradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-71066522069849399222008-10-28T07:09:00.001-07:002008-10-28T07:09:00.001-07:00JOhn Delaney said : Jon,
I look forward to ...<b>JOhn Delaney </b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> Jon, <br /><br />I look forward to your email. My address is above.<br /><br />JohnIntradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-26303590974039653152008-10-28T05:38:00.001-07:002008-10-28T05:38:00.001-07:00fanningtheflames said : Forgot to mention I al...<b>fanningtheflames</b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> Forgot to mention I also part teach the final year undergraduate module in CSR and Governance.Intradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8445596208782534439.post-85798610386092549852008-10-28T05:36:00.001-07:002008-10-28T05:36:00.001-07:00fannigntheflames said : Hi
I am from the York...<b>fannigntheflames</b> <i>said</i> :<br><br> Hi<br /><br />I am from the York Management School (University of York, UK) and have started a PhD in the area of prediction markets. I am a teaching fellow, not a 21 year old just out of undergraduate school, who teaches public sector strategy on the York MPA. This is almost my exact area of interest, perhaps we could talk?<br /><br />Jon(athan) FanningIntradehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07420920711130341735noreply@blogger.com