Intrade iPhone App Live & Free

Our beta iPhone app is live in the iTunes Store and will be available free while our team of voluntary beta testers put it through its paces.

http://itunes.apple.com/ie/app/intrade/id380355142?mt=8

The app uses Intrade virtual currency and a new “look and feel” and some new functionality that will be applied to the www.intrade.com platform soon (while retaining the current version of www.intrade.com as an option for those who may prefer it).

If you are interested in being a beta tester of the app or the new version of Intrade, please let us know.

We would appreciate your feedback.

On behalf of the Intrade Team,

John Delaney

John.delaney *at* intrade.com

FOX and John Stossel Feature Intrade

John Stossel spoke about prediction markets, crowd wisdom, and Intrade late last week.

The segment is available here in 2 parts.

Short links...


http://bit.ly/b9IFD8

http://bit.ly/bEaylp


Long links...


http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/stossel/#/v/4196606/can-betting-odds-predict-future/?playlist_id=87050

http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/stossel/#/v/4196605/the-widsom-of-crowds/?playlist_id=87050

Recent Intrade Press Coverage New York Times & Fortune

Intrade has been fortunate enough to have been featured in the New York Times and Fortune recently.

New York Times: http://nyti.ms/ctT1NA

Fortune: http://bit.ly/csbxpm

Intrade Wants Beta Testers

Soon we will have some new beta software, yes it has taken longer than hoped, but we are getting close.

If you are interested in being added to our beta tester panel let me know on john.delaney@intrade.com

Thanks in advance.

John Delaney

Happy St Paddy's

Happy St Patrick’s day from all your friends on the Emerald Isle.

The 17th March is said to be that of St. Patrick's death and is a national holiday in Ireland. But as is typical of the Irish, it is a case of any excuse is good enough for a good party.

While for some St. Patrick's Day still has religious connotations, for most it is a day to “let your hair down” (if you still have the stuff) and go a little bit crazy or at least do something different.

But here is a bit to the worst trivia ever.

St Paddy himself was a big fan of blue and not green.

Perhaps the green theme for St Pat’s day stems from how many of us look after a couple or more Guinness, Bushmills, Baileys, Jameson, Irish Coffee, Smithwicks, Middleton, Tullamore Dew, Galway Hookers, and White Gypsy. That would be of course before a massive feed of bacon, corned beef and cabbage.

So no matter what you do on the great day that March 17th is, we really hope you have a good one. We will raise a glass to all our friends at least a couple of times before noon. As for the afternoon, our intentions will be good at least.

Guaranteed Segregated Members Cash Accounts

Individual Member Segregated Bank Accounts

To provide additional transparency any member can request a personal account be established in their own name within the suite of segregated member funds accounts that Intrade maintains. As we incur a cost to provide this service to our members we passes on the cost only to members availing of this service.

This service enables you to receive on an individual Bank Statement in from a bank guaranteed by the Irish or Danish governments your balance.

More information available from help@intrade.com

Intrade Wants You to Find and Benefit from Arbitrage Opportunities

It is the season to hunt for risk minimizing profit opportunities on Intrade and on and across other prediction market platforms. We would like to incentivize you to find, highlight and remove these market anomalies.

Periodically arbitrage opportunities exist on Intrade and other prediction market platforms. Arbitrage trading is a risk minimizing strategy that by definition should be “no-gamble”.

To encourage you to profit from these irregularities we will make sure our fees are no obstacle. We are offering all members the ability to execute arbitrage trades entirely on Intrade at zero fees for those trades.

Additionally any member who can find and execute an arbitrage trade between Intrade and any other platform should submit proof after the trades are completed. Once reviewed if our fees have caused the return on your trades to be negative we will refund upto 100% of our fees on such trades. We would encourage other platforms to consider offering the same.

Sometimes people identify arbitrage opportunities but are not in a position to execute the relevant trades. We have created a new thread here (see T&C's) where such arbitrage trades may be logged.

Anyone who does find and highlight to the public such an opportunity and does not execute the relevant trades themselves will earn our thanks, plus a $20 trading credit (and will probably increase the predictive accuracy of the market) if the trades are executed by a trader. Markets that are bid to over 100 or offered at less than 100 for mutually exclusive events do not necessarily qualify for a trading credit.

Fee incentives will be posted to your account after request to help@intrade.com and submission of relevant supporting information.

We hope and expect that people will develop simple price reading and price comparison robots to search for these opportunities. If you are a developer but not a trader and you have such an application or would like to create one, please contact me on john.delaney@intrade.com as we may be able to help you get started with API assistance and support.

Terms and conditions will apply to this offer, but no sneaky ones. Please see our Forum for T&C's.

Traders please take note: All profit and loss risks associated with all trades including trades and traders that attempt to benefit from this offer reside with the trader absolutely and not Intrade. In the event that a trader suffers losses in pursuing an arbitrage strategy for any reason (such as but not limited to a market rule change, one contract in a group being voided or unwound, the platform becoming unavailable, rule changes or differences on Intrade or across platforms, inability to complete the hoped for arbitrage or any other reason whatsoever) Intrade will not entertain, accept or otherwise enter correspondence about any losses as the risk will reside absolutely with the trader.

Free Intrade Historical Market Data - Beta Testers Required/

Happy New Year to All.

We intend to soon offer on a trial basis certain historical market data free of charge as part of an initiative to improve the accessibility, transparency, and validation of prediction markets.

We hope in the near future that by making certain historical market data freely available (and foregoing a revenue stream) we will encourage further academic and business study and support of the prediction market phenomenon.

We will present data by category, event, market group, and individual market. No personal data will be made available. The initial reports that we will provide are closing prices and time and sales of each trade on a market. The data sets will be in a CSV format and will be refreshed daily.

We are looking for a limited number of people to Beta test our application and market data sets. Please contact us on data@intrade.com if you are interested in being a tester and getting access (T&C's will apply) to historical market data.

At What Point Do You Give Up?

In business we all should prospect as if our life depends upon it, because often it does!

Having had many business relationships that seemed so promising and likely to be win-win we all know the feeling of dread when a good business prospect or worse partner won’t return calls.

I remember one time about 2 years ago when I was told by the CEO of a large NYSE listed financial services company that we had an agreement. I remember even better the personal disappointment and that of the team when it didn’t happen*.

It is at these moments we all ask ourselves “At what point do I simply give up?”

Winston Churchill in typical fashion answered this question better than most when he said "Never, never, never give up!"

That is my approach. Just because someone doesn’t “buy” or something doesn’t happen within the expected time does not mean that the opportunity is over. Sometimes you are not talking to the right person or underestimating the time required to achieve something of value.

I got my first job as a graduate after applying to the same investment bank 5 times within a month and not taking “no” for an answer. As an aside, I met my future wife on the first day I finally got a job there. Similarly, one of the best relationships Intrade has achieved is with a large media organization that happened after 2 years and over a dozen different approaches to different gatekeepers.

Thomas Edison when asked about the 700 hundred failures to create a long lasting light bulb is reported to have said “"I have not failed 700 times. I have not failed once. I have succeeded in proving that those 700 ways will not work. When I have eliminated the ways that will not work, I will find the way that will work."

Emulating an attitude like Edison or Churchill above will help you succeed. It most certainly has for us.

* Little did we know then that "no deal" was the ideal outcome for our future.

The Harder We Look, The Less We See.

Research has shown that anxiety disrupts people's ability to notice the unexpected.

In one experiment, people were asked to watch a moving dot in the centre of a computer screen.

Without warning, large dots would occasionally be flashed at the edges of the screen.

Nearly all participants noticed these large dots.

The experiment was then repeated with a second group of people, who were offered a large financial reward for accurately watching the centre dot, creating more anxiety.

They became focused on the centre dot and more than a third of them missed the large dots when they appeared on the screen.

The harder they looked, the less they saw.

From http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/3304496/Be-lucky---its-an-easy-skill-to-learn.html

The FT Covers Intrade thanks to Carl, Intrade Exchange Operations Manager

Politics: Several ways to lose a deposit

By Huw Richards

Published: September 25 2009 01:59 | Last updated: September 25 2009 01:59

Governments that fear they may be mere months from oblivion must take comfort where they can. So a listing on Intrade, the Ireland-based predictions exchange, has to be counted good news – or at least as good as it gets – for Gordon Brown and colleagues.

Eighth on the list of the markets currently most favoured by Intrade’s predominantly American clientele – and shoehorned between the Democratic and Republican prospects in the forthcoming election for Governor of Virginia – was the one on the likelihood of a Labour victory come the forthcoming UK General Election.

Admittedly, one element in this is that Labour’s hopes now appear to have receded to a point that they offer the thoughtful trader a potentially lucrative long-shot with only a limited downside. A win on a predictions market pays out at 100. Intrade rated Labour’s chance of being largest party following the next election at 15.

Still, it represented a marginal improvement on a site whose traders have earned a formidable reputation for collective wisdom – predicting all 50 states in the tightly-contested US presidential election of 2004, and in 2008 missing only on two, whose outcome was so close that they took some days to resolve.

As the UK election looms, spread betting and prediction sites can expect a sharp rise in political business. Interest inevitably follows the electoral cycle, spiking at election time after long periods of quiet. This is one reason why politics tends to be an add-on for companies whose main business is in more consistently appealing fields.

Politics has won Intrade a lot of publicity, but its core markets are financial. In Britain, politics tends to be the concern of companies that otherwise focus on sport.

Wayne Lincoln, trading spokesman for Sporting Index, says: “It builds into very good business at election time and brings in customers who don’t usually bet on sport, except perhaps on the Boat Race.”

By far the largest market at present – Mr Lincoln puts it at 95 per cent of SI’s politics business – is the number of seats gained by each party at the next election.

There has been little good news for Gordon Brown in the way this market has progressed. When he became prime minister in July 2007, Labour and the Conservatives were nearly level. The initial “Brown bounce” took Labour almost 100 ahead at 330-336 against 234-240 for the Conservatives.

But by the end of the year, Labour was back to 267-273 against the Conservative 300-306 – and its position has steadily eroded since: “Whatever goes wrong, it seems to stick to Labour at the moment,” says Mr Lincoln.

Recently, Labour has been rading at 205-210 on Extra bet, compared with a Conservative spread of 354-359 and the Liberal Democrats at 50-53.

The range of markets will grow as the election approaches. Sporting Index expects to add a considerable number on issues such as the number of women MPs and the time of the first declaration on election night.

It also has a market on the identity of the next chancellor of the exchequer. Mr Lincoln explains: “We put that up when it seemed likely Alastair Darling might go.” With that now seeming unlikely this side of the general election, the market leader is George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, with his deputy Philip Hammond running second.

One bet that might seem equally popular is the identity of the next Labour leader, but there is as yet only limited interest. Chris Shillington of Extrabet says: “We offered a fixed-odds market on that a few months ago. It got us a fair bit of publicity and a lot more traffic on our politics markets in general, but not a single bet was laid on it.”

Anyone who still fancies Boris Johnson’s chances of being the next Tory premier can back their hunch on Intrade, which puts its probability at about 6.9 per cent. Carl Wolfenden, Exchange Operations Manager, says: “That was a market we put up at the request of a member and there have been 53 contracts traded, which isn’t bad.” Several of Intrade markets originate in such suggestions. Mr Wolfenden says: “One example was presidential endorsements last year, which created a lot of interest.”

If hardly on the scale of a US presidential election, a British poll represents useful business for Intrade, which traded more than 17,000 contracts on the 2005 General Election. Much depends on how close it looks – predictions sites thrive on close-run things. The British poll at the moment seems rather too predictable, as does Germany’s election this month, with Intrade rating incumbent Angela Merkel as 95 per cent likely to continue in the job.

Still, US politics continues to offer much to intrigue Intrade’s clients. One particularly strong market at present is on President Obama’s health reforms, with agreement to a Federal-run health plan before the end of this year reckoned at 20.5 per cent.

Intrade Confidential Survey Results - Now Public

Intrade is currently running a survey from its homepage.

The survey may be accessed here (Please take the survey if you haven’t already).

We are making the results* of our survey transparent and public. We are doing this as we believe providing open access to this information is in the best interests of our members, our business, the industry, our competitors, supporters and even our rare ;-) symbiotic detractors.

Should you like to discuss or collaborate on this or related surveys please contact me directly at john.delaney@intrade.com.

Regards,

John Delaney

CEO

Intrade

1. How did you discover Intrade.com?
Blog	12%
Friend or colleague	17%
Search engine (e.g. Google, Yahoo!)	23%
Facebook	0%
Twitter	0%
Other (please specify)	48% (Top thematic answers: College Professor, CNN, CNBC, HardBall with Chris Matthews, Larry Kudlow, Glen Beck, ABC 20/20, Politickr)

2. How would you feel if you could no longer use Intrade.com?
Very disappointed	67%
Somewhat disappointed	27%
Not disappointed	6%
N/A - I no longer use Intrade.com	0%

3. What would you likely use as an alternative if Intrade.com were no longer available?
I probably wouldn’t use an alternative	65%
I would use an alternative	35% (Top thematic answers: Drudge Report, Iowa Electronic Markets, survey/public opinion poll data, more time on virtual currency markets, any other real money prediction market)

4. What is the primary benefit that you have received from Intrade.com?
Various responses from respondents	85% (Top thematic answers: Profit, insight, excitement, hedge, training, education for finance, “seeing the curve before it curves”)
No responses from respondents	15%

5. Have you recommended Intrade.com to others? If Yes, why?
No	26%
Yes	74% (Top thematic answers: A futures market on events rather than commodities, , risk managed way to trade futures, a great place to use your knowledge to make money, the best predictions market with a good history, as an opportunity to profit from your good judgment, futures trading on current events.)

6. What type of person do you think would benefit most from Intrade.com?
Various responses from respondents	79% (Top thematic answers: finance, trader, investor, speculators, politicians, media people, people with expert information, Corp. CEO's, managers, 'Joe 6 pack')
No responses from respondents	21%

7. How can we improve Intrade.com to better meet your needs?
Various responses from respondents	83% (Top thematic answers: Improve liquidity somehow, Make depositing easier, a better user interface/upgrade your website, a central clearing counterparty, add sport markets, more local markets, make it easier to spread the Intrade word)
No responses from respondents	17%

8. Would it be okay if we followed up by email to request a clarification to one or more of your responses?
No	39%
Yes	61%

* From approx 100 initial respondents.

Market Volatility Report Just Launched

We have just pushed a new report live this morning. You can access this report here or by clicking on the link from the homepage called “Market Data Reports – New”.

The first report here is called the “Contract Volatility” report and it shows the most volatile* markets during the last trading session.

We hope that this report allows you focus on markets that may offer good trading opportunities due to their volatile nature.

We will be adding more reports to this section soon. Please let me have your suggestions for any specific reports you would like to see.

Regards,

John Delaney

john.delaney@intrade.com

*Volatility is defined as the absolute percentage change in closing prices from yesterday to the day before, i.e. the opening price for this trading session to opening price from the pervious opening session.

Ireland Has A Good Recovery Plan Now - Will it Implement it?

Well at least it has an idea on how to solidify its foundation.

Implementation of public spending report would reduce structural deficit by 3% of GDP

A Group set up to recommend how we reduce our public service numbers and costs released its report yesterday. It detailed €5.2bn in expenditure cuts. This equals 3% of 2009 GDP.

Top elements are...

Cut public employee numbers by 5% or 17,000 (€700ml payroll saving plus a fortune in non-payroll costs)

Cut social welfare payments by 5%

Lets hope the cuts happen soon. The Group think they can be in the majority in 2010.

If these cuts are implemented in full then our Government Deficit could get to 7% by end-2011.

Trade Alerts on Twitter

We are now posting real-time trades to Twitter using Twitter username “IntradeTrades”

We intend to provide for customizable Trade Alerts by email in the near future.

Appreciate your comments below or to me on john.delaney@intrade.com

Don Not Criminalize Risk Taking.

With so many businesses failing and risk being a pariah of biblical proportions what are some of the future implications and what can we do about it now?

Here is an example.

Say the business you started was to fail. You may feel that you would have been better off if you had stayed in an 8-till-5.30 job and took your 15 days holidays per year instead of giving every hour of every week to your own business.

There is a lot of risk aversion right now. People are saving. Taking too much risk is the stated cause of the mess we are in. But if we somehow criminalize the concept of risk taking where is the innovation and entrepreneurial spirit going to come from in the future?

Related Story from Washington Times "EDITORIAL: In defense of speculators"

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/12/in-defense-of-speculators/

Related Market - wouldnt it be good to have this type of information on your company.

http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=659100

Real Time Trade Alerts – Should be Publish?

We already have much of the technology developed to publish via email, Twitter etc instant real-time notifications of matched trades on Intrade.

The notification would be short like the example below but would inform those interested of activity on Intrade.

Before we develop this I would appreciate you’re your input as to whether you would value this information / transparency.

The body of the text would be…

E.g.

Prediction market 2012.REP.NOM.PALIN just traded at 10.5% ($1.05 out of $10) on Intrade. Previous trade was 10.5%. http://tiny.cc/FS9lN

Economic Green-Shoots Wilting. Stronger Fertilizer Needed.

Trillions have been asserted to be invested in getting us out of the recession, crisis or whatever you care to call it to-date. However to-date most of it hasn’t found its way out of bureaucratic processes. Even still, the CEO of GE, Jeffrey Inmelt, and others believe that "the crisis is over”.

Do you agree with him? Whether you do or don’t consider please…

June unemployment: Another half million added to the 14.5 million unemployed bringing the rate to 9.5%. This is expected to increase. There is a 70% chance that unemployment will be above 10.25% at year end. As a CEO of a company, we will be reluctant to resume hiring until growth commences.

Consumer Spending Reducing: Credit card companies are curbing consumer spending further as they are being stung by increased defaults and delinquencies. But consumers are adding to this be saving hard for the rainy day as evidenced by the recent saving statistics. With less people employed, spending will reduce further.

Individual States in Crisis: E.g. California defaulting on short term obligations. They can’t run current budget deficits. With taxes falling they are forced to cut spending (something the Irish government seem unbelievable slow to do) which will reduce consumer spending now and the foundation for growth in future as education spending is being cut.

Foreclosures Increasing: The rising number of foreclosed and abandoned homes and commercial property. There are about 2 million foreclosed or abandoned homes now.

So the crisis is over? Alas this seems wishful thinking to me at least.

Politickr Intrade Market Wrap Video

Watch an independent periodic video market wrap here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jd7jCOtMULM&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.intrade.com%2F%23&feature=player_embedded

Thanks to Politickr.

On Innovation

Yesterday I mentioned that we need to be innovative facing our challenges. But it dawned on me I did not talk about innovation enough. 

Commuting in at 4.30am this morning I was considering it again. Here are some further thoughts...

Innovation is a fashionable word. I use it often, probably too often. But what is innovation and how should we think about it. Or "frame" it?

Think of it as the discovery of new paths, creating something new or a better version of something that already exists.

I looked for innovation in others and found Scott Belsky again. According to Scott Belsky of Behance “part of the process is defying the status quo”. 

Here are a few quotes via Scott…

“The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking.” -John Kenneth Galbraith

 “If you can’t solve a problem, it’s because you’re playing by the rules.” -Paul Arden

“The truth is, creativity isn’t about wild talent as much as it’s about productivity. To find a few ideas that work, you need to try a lot that don’t. It’s a pure numbers game.” -Robert Sutton, a professor of management science and engineering at Stanford Engineering School.

Looking to old quotes may not be innovative but nothing wrong from building from the "shoulders of giants". 

Have a good day.