The Intrade World Crisis Index

The Intrade World Crisis Index will tell us whether the Davos World Economic Forum Matters!

As business and political leagers gather at the five-day Davos meeting we will measure whether many of those who presided over blunders in business and policy can credibly lead us in 'Shaping the Post-Crisis World' - the theme for the meeting.

To measure the immediate impact of dozens of presentations and workshops by 2,500 business and 42 political leaders we have constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index.

Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced at 50.0 at the official opening of the meeting is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions.

A higher post meeting index means our markets predict a more disastrous 2009 than before. A lower post-meeting index means our markets predict global leaders have reduced the probability that 2009 will be the disaster we previously thought.

You can see the updated Intrade World Crisis Index HERE.