Monday, July 27, 2009

Market Volatility Report Just Launched

We have just pushed a new report live this morning. You can access this report here or by clicking on the link from the homepage called “Market Data Reports – New”.

The first report here is called the “Contract Volatility” report and it shows the most volatile* markets during the last trading session.

We hope that this report allows you focus on markets that may offer good trading opportunities due to their volatile nature.

We will be adding more reports to this section soon. Please let me have your suggestions for any specific reports you would like to see.


John Delaney

*Volatility is defined as the absolute percentage change in closing prices from yesterday to the day before, i.e. the opening price for this trading session to opening price from the pervious opening session.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Ireland Has A Good Recovery Plan Now - Will it Implement it?

Well at least it has an idea on how to solidify its foundation.

Implementation of public spending report would reduce structural deficit by 3% of GDP

A Group set up to recommend how we reduce our public service numbers and costs released its report yesterday. It detailed €5.2bn in expenditure cuts. This equals 3% of 2009 GDP.

Top elements are...
Cut public employee numbers by 5% or 17,000 (€700ml payroll saving plus a fortune in non-payroll costs)
Cut social welfare payments by 5%

Lets hope the cuts happen soon. The Group think they can be in the majority in 2010.

If these cuts are implemented in full then our Government Deficit could get to 7% by end-2011.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Trade Alerts on Twitter

We are now posting real-time trades to Twitter using Twitter username “IntradeTrades”

We intend to provide for customizable Trade Alerts by email in the near future.

Appreciate your comments below or to me on

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Don Not Criminalize Risk Taking.

With so many businesses failing and risk being a pariah of biblical proportions what are some of the future implications and what can we do about it now?

Here is an example.

Say the business you started was to fail. You may feel that you would have been better off if you had stayed in an 8-till-5.30 job and took your 15 days holidays per year instead of giving every hour of every week to your own business.

There is a lot of risk aversion right now. People are saving. Taking too much risk is the stated cause of the mess we are in. But if we somehow criminalize the concept of risk taking where is the innovation and entrepreneurial spirit going to come from in the future?

Related Story from Washington Times "EDITORIAL: In defense of speculators"

Related Market - wouldnt it be good to have this type of information on your company.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Real Time Trade Alerts – Should be Publish?

We already have much of the technology developed to publish via email, Twitter etc instant real-time notifications of matched trades on Intrade.

The notification would be short like the example below but would inform those interested of activity on Intrade.

Before we develop this I would appreciate you’re your input as to whether you would value this information / transparency.

The body of the text would be…


Prediction market 2012.REP.NOM.PALIN just traded at 10.5% ($1.05 out of $10) on Intrade. Previous trade was 10.5%.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Economic Green-Shoots Wilting. Stronger Fertilizer Needed.

Trillions have been asserted to be invested in getting us out of the recession, crisis or whatever you care to call it to-date. However to-date most of it hasn’t found its way out of bureaucratic processes. Even still, the CEO of GE, Jeffrey Inmelt, and others believe that "the crisis is over”.

Do you agree with him? Whether you do or don’t consider please…

June unemployment: Another half million added to the 14.5 million unemployed bringing the rate to 9.5%. This is expected to increase. There is a 70% chance that unemployment will be above 10.25% at year end. As a CEO of a company, we will be reluctant to resume hiring until growth commences.

Consumer Spending Reducing: Credit card companies are curbing consumer spending further as they are being stung by increased defaults and delinquencies. But consumers are adding to this be saving hard for the rainy day as evidenced by the recent saving statistics. With less people employed, spending will reduce further.

Individual States in Crisis: E.g. California defaulting on short term obligations. They can’t run current budget deficits. With taxes falling they are forced to cut spending (something the Irish government seem unbelievable slow to do) which will reduce consumer spending now and the foundation for growth in future as education spending is being cut.

Foreclosures Increasing: The rising number of foreclosed and abandoned homes and commercial property. There are about 2 million foreclosed or abandoned homes now.

So the crisis is over? Alas this seems wishful thinking to me at least.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Politickr Intrade Market Wrap Video

Watch an independent periodic video market wrap here...

Thanks to Politickr.